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A. Projecting Future Enrollment Growth among UNC Institutions

Section II summarizes recent enrollment trends among the three higher education sectors in North Carolina. Section III describes demographic trends that will produce a surge in higher education enrollments comparable to that experienced when the baby boomers reached college some thirty years ago.

It is the statutory responsibility of the University of North Carolina to extend the benefits of higher education to the people of North Carolina. More specifically, with respect to the coming decade, the North Carolina Progress Board, in its report Measuring Our Progress: Targets for the Year 2010, has set the following target: North Carolina will reach the national average in bachelor's degrees by 2010and there will be no disparity between blacks and whites. The UNC Board of Governors, in its strategic directions for this planning period (Section IV), has committed the University of North Carolina to do its part to assist the state in reaching this goal.

The first step in preparing an enrollment plan for UNC during the coming decade is the development of enrollment projections. Projections most be understood for what they are (planning tools) as well as for what they are not (goals or guarantees). Projections are only as reliable as the assumptions upon which they are based. The accuracy of these assumptions (e.g., the college going-rate of high school graduates) must be monitored regularly. If any assumptions prove to be flawed, they and the projections they produce must be revised. Consequently, the enrollment projections that form the basis for the UNC enrollment plan will be reviewed annually and revised as necessary.

UNC enrollment projections are built on extrapolations of two elements: 1) pools of potential students by age group for the planning period, and 2) the historic UNC attendance rates of these groups. UNC relies upon projections by independent sources for the number of potential students in various age cohorts. For North Carolina high school graduates, UNC averages the projections of two agenciesthe North Carolina Department of Public Instruction and the Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education (WICHE), a nationally recognized source of high school enrollment projections. For older North Carolinians, UNC uses the most recent projections supplied by the U.S. Census Bureau.

These projections represent potential demand. To determine what percent of this potential demand can be expected to enroll at a UNC institution, the projection model takes into account the UNC attendance rates of members of these various pools at each UNC campus over the past seven years. It then multiplies the projected participation rate of each age cohort by the projected size of that group for a given year at each campus, thus producing an annual enrollment projection for each constituent institution. Campus projections are then summed to produce a total UNC projection of enrollment demand. Given the high cost of out-of-state tuition, the model assumes that the participation rate of out-of-state undergraduates will not increase.

Figure V.1 plots data on the actual and projected pools of potential in-state students. The data show that the primary pool of potential undergraduates18-21 year-old public high school graduateswill increase steadily throughout the decade and by 2008 will reach an all-time high. On the other hand, the primary pool of potential graduate studentsthe 25-35 year-old cohortwill decline over the same period. Figure V.2 depicts the increase in UNC attendance rates for North Carolina high school graduates in recent years. The data in both figures suggest that traditional undergraduates, who are more likely to attend full-time, will be the dominant factor in UNC enrollment growth.

Fig. V.1. Pools of Potential In-State Students (Actual and Projected)

Fig. V.2. UNC Going Rate for N.C. High School Graduates: 1990-1999

UNC-GA Planning Figure V.3 displays projected annual UNC fall headcount enrollments through 2008, arrived at by using population pool projections and historical campus enrollment rates of students grouped by degree level, residency status, and age group. These are the projections that were used to develop the ten-year enrollment plan (1999-2008) adopted by the UNC Board of Governors in April 1999. These projections suggest that enrollment growth during the first five years (1999-2003) will be approximately 17,500 (or an 11.3 percent increase). Projected growth will be greater in the second five-year period (2004-2008)approximately 30,000 (or a 17.4 percent increase). Projected enrollment growth for the ten-year period (1999-2008) is approximately 47,600 (or 30.7 percent). Reflecting the differing rates of growth of the various age groups, this figure also shows that most of the projected enrollment increase will be driven by undergraduates.

The UNC projection model is a statistical model. It does not make assumptions about events that might reverse past trends. The following are examples of factors that might have a positive or negative impact on the 10-year enrollment projections:

The Comprehensive Articulation Agreement might lead more students to decide to get an associate degree from a community college and then transfer to a UNC institution. This might reduce the UNC going-rate of first time freshmen, a trend that would be picked up in future years as the projection model takes account of the trend. However, the current model does not make such an assumption.

Similarly, more students might decide to attend private colleges and universities or enroll out-of-state as a result of increased state support for North Carolina's private institutions and federal tax credits.

It is not yet clear how many students will prefer to receive their education via distance education (whether offered by UNC or other providers) rather than coming to a campus.

The model does not provide for a significant increase in adult lifelong learners. Such a phenomenon, although it would be picked up in future iterations of the projection model, is not reflected in current projections.

The projection model makes no assumptions about future economic conditions. Economic downturns or recessions generally result in increased enrollment, as job seekers decide to strengthen their qualifications in a weak job market.

Fig. V.3. UNC Undergraduate and Graduate/First Professional Enrollments: 1992-98 (actual), 1999-2008 (projected by UNC Model)

B. Planning to Accommodate Projected Enrollment Growth

Enrollment projections do not constitute an enrollment plan. Rather, they serve as a planning tool that enables institutional leaders to estimate future enrollment demand. The next step is to determine whether (and how) the institution-or, in the case of a system, all of the constituent institutions combined-can meet the projected demand. The answer requires an evaluation of several elements-

e.g., institutional mission, current physical capacity, and future capacity for growth.

Development of the UNC enrollment plan thus began by asking each constituent institution to estimate the extent to which it could accommodate its projected enrollment growth. For two institutions (the North Carolina School of the Arts and UNC Asheville, a public liberal arts institution), their unique missions require that they limit growth. But for many other UNC institutions, the challenge in serving projected enrollment growth is the lack of adequate or appropriate facilities.

The adequacy of UNC facilities was addressed in a comprehensive study conducted by Eva Klein and Associates (EKA). Applying space-planning standards approved by the Board of Governors in November 1998, EKA developed estimates of current capacity in critical academic categories and for student housing. Current space capacity was defined as all facilities in service, projects currently under construction, and projects fully funded but not yet under construction. This study produced the following findings:

UNC has capacity for growth on some campuses. However, most of these campuses still have shortages of specific types of space (especially laboratories).

Capacity is not available at all institutions where it is needed, based on projections of demand. For example, six institutions have current capacity needs: ECU, NCSU, UNC-CH, UNCC, UNCG, and UNCW.

Qualitative improvements (e.g., renovations, retrofitting) are needed at many institutions.

Most institutions require additional residence halls to house the largely undergraduate enrollment growth anticipated.

Given these findings, the Board of Governors adopted the following principles to guide the enrollment planning process:

Use existing capacity to the fullest extent possible.

Promote economies of scale and stronger institutional financial capacity by setting a target of at least 5,000 to 6,000 students for most campuses.

Set enrollment targets that will use estimated capacity of most UNC campuses, but do not expect a rate of growth higher than 20 percent in the first five-year period (1999-2003) or 33 percent for the second five-year period (2004-2008).

Expand capacity at campuses where this is required to meet their growth targets.

Restrain enrollment growth at UNC Asheville and the North Carolina School of the Arts in recognition of their special missions.

Serve some of the projected enrollment growth through expansion of distance education enrollment and the establishment of one or more off-campus "university centers."

Applying these principles in partnership with UNC chancellors, appropriate targets for enrollment growth were adopted by the board for each campus (Table V.I).

Seven institutions with current capacity and, in five cases, current enrollments below 5,000 students were targeted for above-average enrollment growth—ECSU, FSU, NCA&T, NCCU, UNCP, WCU, and WSSU. To assist these institutions in meeting ambitious growth targets (10-year enrollment increases ranging from 40 to 58 percent), several measures are being implemented:

PATHWAYS, a statewide system of guidance information for students in grades 7-12 and their parents, will raise the awareness of students about educational opportunities in all sectors of North Carolina higher education. It will be especially helpful in making students aware of enrollment opportunities at institutions with current capacity at a time when many other institutions will have to limit their enrollment growth.

The UNC Board of Governors has adopted a need-based financial aid plan which, if funded by the General Assembly, will have a significant positive impact on students who might attend these seven institutions.

The North Carolina General Assembly has appropriated $10 million in recurring funds to assist these institutions in increasing their enrollment. These funds are being used to develop comprehensive enrollment growth plans, promote greater operating efficiencies, improve instruction, enhance development offices, and strengthen facilities management capabilities.

The UNC enrollment plan sets enrollment targets for two five-year periods (1999-2003 and 2004-2008), with the understanding that both the plan itself and the projections upon which it is based must be carefully monitored and revised as necessary. The most recent enrollment data available when the original projections were prepared late in 1998 were the fall 1998 headcount enrollments at all UNC institutions. Thus the first opportunity to monitor the projections and the UNC enrollment plan occurred in November 1999, when fall headcount enrollment figures became available. Table V.2 compares fall 1999 enrollment with fall 1998 enrollment and measures the extent to which UNC institutions succeeded in achieving their enrollment targets, as established by the enrollment plan.

Overall the UNC fall 1999 on-campus headcount enrollment increased by 1,081 students, reaching a record high of 156,072. Fall 1999 distance education enrollment (when SCHs are equated to regular-term headcount equivalents) was up by approximately 1,592 students, also a record enrollment. Together, this represents a total increase over fall 1998 of 2,673 students.

The UNC enrollment projection model projected a headcount growth of 2,234 students from fall 1998 to fall 1999. It assumed that approximately 822 of the projected increase would occur off campus. Thus the UNC enrollment projections and the plan to manage the projected enrollment growth were very close to the mark, with 331 fewer students than projected enrolling on campus and 770 more than projected enrolling off campus. Overall, UNC fall headcount enrollment (on campus and off campus) was approximately 439 higher than projected.

This record enrollment was achieved despite a decline of 256 in unclassified (usually part-time) students and a decline of 1,072 in returning students. Both of these decreases were probably attributable to a robust economy, which caused these students to remain in the job market. The number of applications for admission confirms the UNC projections of growing demand for higher education. Applications for admission as first-time freshmen increased by 3,732 (4.6 percent). The number of applications for admission as graduate or professional students increased by 248 (0.7 percent), confirming projections of a smaller applicant pool among students in the 25-35 year-old cohort.

Given the success of the enrollment projection model in forecasting fall 1999 enrollment, the University is retaining the projections (Fig. V.3) that formed the basis of the UNC enrollment plan (Table V.1) adopted by the Board of Governors in April 1999. Extending those projections out one more year to fall 2009, the University projects an enrollment of approximately 206,600. This means that the projected 10-year increase (fall 1999 to fall 2009) would be approximately 50,500, or about 3,000 more than the increase projected for prior 10-year period (fall 1998 to fall 2008). Approximately 8,000 of this increase would be served off campus.

*Target: Reflects amount enrollment needed in 1999-2000 to make progress toward the 2003 enrollment target adopted in the UNC enrollment plan. For the seven "high growth" institutions, projections were used instead of targets for this first year, because they are lower and these institutions haven't completed or implemented enrollment growth plans. The distance education target seeks an increase of 822 over fall 1998 in order to serve 822 students projected on-campus who, according to the enrollment plan, would instead be served by distance education. The headcount for distance education is adjusted to equate the student credit hours (SCHs) carried by a distance education student to the average load carried by students on each campus. Actual distance education SCHs (equated to regular-term head count) for fall 1999 are not yet available. Therefore the 3,500 student shown for fall ’99 represents an estimate. Actual numbers will be available in January 2000.

Adoption of the UNC enrollment plan was followed by the development of a ten-year capital plan that includes the capital projects required to meet campus enrollment targets. As the fall 1999 enrollment figures demonstrate, a few UNC

institutions are already at or near capacity. Many are constrained by the need for renovations, especially in the sciences. Thus the success of the enrollment plan in accommodating projected demand is closely tied to the success of the capital plan.

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